Caribbean Stud Poker Odds of Winning

Odds of Winning Your Hand

I'm going to start with the most likely results and go towards the probabilities of getting a strong hand. A unit is the amount that you bet on your Ante. Raising would mean that you are betting 3 units.

These numbers only work if you are strictly playing the way I have listed in the caribbean stud strategies, which includes folding your hand when appropriate. These odds are based on the approximately 20 trillion possible combinations.

1. Folding your hand - If you fold when it's appropriate, then you will have about a 47.5% chance of folding any one particular hand or a little less than 1 out of every 2 hands. This means you should be raising about 52.5% of the time.1 unit loss overall.
   
   This also means that the dealer will qualify a little more than 53% of the time overall (the slight difference is because the dealer will never fold with Ace/King)
    
2. Dealer does not qualify - All of the rest of these assumes that you have raised. The chances that you will raise and the dealer will not qualify is about 23% or a little less than 1 in 4 hands. 1 unit won.
    
   
3. Player wins the hand and dealer qualifies - The overall odds for this situation happening is about 16%  or about 1 in every 6.25 hands. This will be broken out further below.
    
4. Dealer wins the hand - The overall odds of the dealer winning a hand which you have correctly raised is about 13.5% or once every 7.5 hands. 3 units loss.
    
5. Push or all five cards are the same - This is the only other possible scenario and only has a 0.0016% chance of happening or once in every 62,500 hands. Nothing won or loss.
    
   
6. Payout 1 to 1, win on a pair or less -  Odds are 11.5% (1 in every 8..5 hands). 3 units won.
    
7. Payout 2 to 1, win on two pairs - Odds are 2.5% (1 in 40 hands). 5 units won.
    
8. Payout 3 to 1, win on a three of a kind - Odds are 1.2% (1 in 83 hands). 7 units won.
    
9. Payout 4 to 1, win on a straight - Odds are 0.22% (1 in 455 hands). 9 units won.
    
10. Payout 5 to 1, win on a flush - Odds are 0.11% (1 in 910 hands). 11 units won.
     
11. Payout 7 to 1, win on a full house - Odds are 0.08% (1 in 1200 hands). 15 units won.
     
12. Payout 20 to 1, win on a four of a kind - Odds are 0.01% (1 in 7042 hands). 41 units won.
     
13. Payout 50 to 1, win on a straight flush - Odds are 0.0008% (1 in 125,000 hands).
        101 units won.
     
14. Payout 100 to 1, win on a royal flush - Odds are 0.0001% (1 in a million hands).
        201 units won.
     

House Edge

The house edge in Caribbean Stud is difficult to measure because of the different styles people use while playing. That being said, you will find the major styles that people use while playing caribbean stud poker and how each fairs against the casino.

Here is a list of the strategies used and what the house advantage is for that strategy:

• Raise on Ace,King,Jack,8,3 or better - 5.3% house edge
• Raise when the dealer's up card matches one of yours - 5.35% house edge
• Raise on a pair or better - 5.45% house edge
• Raise on Ace/King or better - 5.7% house edge
• Raise on everything - 16.5% house edge